U.S. Dollar Dynamics
Author | : Mr.Ravi Balakrishnan |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 47 |
Release | : 2016-09-08 |
ISBN-10 | : 9781475535150 |
ISBN-13 | : 1475535155 |
Rating | : 4/5 (155 Downloads) |
Download or read book U.S. Dollar Dynamics written by Mr.Ravi Balakrishnan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-08 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the drivers of dynamics of major U.S. FX bilaterals. We first construct a novel measure of FX risk premiums using Consensus exchange rate forecasts. We then use VAR analysis to show that (i) risk premium shocks play a key role in driving dynamics of the major U.S. FX bilaterals; (ii) longer-term interest differentials also matter, especially for the Canadian $ and the Euro; (iii) oil price shocks play a particularly important role for the Canadian $ (an oil exporter); and (iv) risk appetite shocks (e.g., VIX shocks) generally lead to U.S. dollar appreciation. The importance of risk premium and longer-term interest differential shocks fit well with a simple theoretical model and are supported by recent event studies.